تلخیص
Abstract
This study is conducted to forecast the population of Pakistan based on different
demographic variables that significantly influences the population of a country.
For this purpose, annual data have been taken from Pakistan Bureau of
Statistics and official website of World Bank for a period of 65 years, i.e. from
1960-2015. The data was analyzed using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated
Moving Average) models and deterministic methods for different demographic
indicators of Pakistan. A comparison of the two methods has been made to
assess the accuracy of their population projections. It was found using RMSE
(Root Mean Square Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and AIC (Akaike
Information Criterion) that ARIMA perform better than Simple Exponential
Smoothing (SES) method in forecasting the population of Pakistan. Therefore, it
was concluded that ARIMA model is useful and is recommended to be used for
forecasting the population of Pakistan.
Keywords: demographic variables, ARIMA model, simple exponential
smoothing method and projection methods
Raza Ahmed Khan, amjad ali, dost muhammad khan. (2019) Forecasting Demographic Data of Pakistan: A Comparative Study of Time Series Models & Population Projection Methods, Journal of Managerial Sciences, Volume 13, Issue 4.
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