Abstract
The present study aims to analyze the growth rate distribution pattern in different regimes of Pakistan and also forecasts the growth rates of agricultural, industrial, services and GDP growth rates in Pakistan. The study uses secondary data ranging from 1956 to 2011. The data from 1956 to 2000 has been obtained from State Bank of Pakistan and from 2001 to 2011 from Economic Survey of Pakistan. For the analysis of the regime-wise distribution of growth rates, the Gini-coefficient and Lorenz curve are used. While for forecasting the growth rates, moving average forecast and exponential smoothing method have been used. The findings revealed that the Gini-coefficients for agriculture, industrial, services and GDP growth rates were 0.161453, 0.214199, 0.147940 and 0.112955. The Lorenz curve also suggests equality between selected growth rates regime-wise. The moving average forecasts for agriculture, industrial, services sector and GDP growth rates in the year 2012 is 1.7%, 2.7%, 2.9% and 3.1% respectively for the year 2012. According to the exponential smoothing method these growth rates in the year 2012 are projected to be 1.9%, 3.1%, 3.8% and 3.3% respectively. Looking over the growth distribution pattern, there is a need to take revolutionary steps and big push to boost the macroeconomic variables performance in Pakistan. Based on the forecasting results, the services sector may decline in next year, which needs to be focused on.
Dr. Anwar Hussain , Naila Nazir. (2013) Analysis of Growth Rates in Different Regimes of Pakistan: Distribution and Forecasting, Journal of Managerial Sciences, Volume 7, Issue 1.
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