Abstract
Flooding is globally a major natural hazard. Pakistan faces flooding problems almost every year. In present study a model was developed to compute the flood discharge and to propose structural management intrusions accordingly. Gumbel’s Extreme Value Type –I distribution (EV-I), Log Pearson Type-III distribution (LP-III), and HEC-RAS software approaches were used to develop the model based on Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). LP-III distribution gave more accurate results only for combined pre & post dam scenario having long discharge series (1926-2018) with R-square (R 2 ) value of 0.9973. While Gumbel (EV-1) distribution is good fit of line to data with R2 value of 0.971 for post-dam scenario having shorter discharge series (1978-2018). Further, in post-dam scenario flood discharge computed by Gumbel (EV-1) distribution was 37% lower than LP-III. EV-I distribution results presented that flood peaks for the lower return periods were reduced significantly due to the construction of Indian dams. The design flood discharge of 384,765 cusec is peak design discharge computed by EV-1 distribution for 100 year return period. However, current discharge capacity of barrage to pass the flood computed by developed model was 295,492 cusec. To pass the peak flood discharge safely, evaluation of four structural flood management interventions revealed that barrage can pass the flood discharge of 384,765 cusec safely by raising the HFL by 1.94 ft. The proposed research is helpful in devising the guidelines for the rehabilitation of hydraulic structures to address 100 year return period flood without breaching the protection embankments.
Ahsan Ali, Muhammad Aslam, Fatima Hanif. (2021) DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF FLOOD MANAGEMENT MODEL IN PRE AND POST DAM SCENARIO AT RIVER SUTLEJ, Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences, Volume 58, Issue 3.
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