Abstract
Sunflower is one of the most cultivated oil seed crop in the world. Hence, the adaptation strategies for sunflower production
and food security are crucial for mitigating the negative impacts of climate change. The experiments were conducted for two
years to assess the climate change impacts and developing suitable adaptation strategies for sunflower in the arid
environment. The CROPGRO and APSIM-Sunflower models were calibrated and evaluated with an observed experimental
data among the best sowing dates at1st January with nitrogen @ 240 kg ha-1
. Where root mean square error (RMSE) between
observed and simulated achene yield was 121.16 and 167.91 respectively. The future climate projections under the
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)-8.5 for years 2040-2069 were obtained from the Global Climate Model
(GCMs). The increase in maximum and minimum temperature by 3.5oC and 4oC with 30% less precipitation was observed
under hotdry climate conditions. The simulations with these projected temperatures decreased achene yield 6 to 24% with the
CROPGRO model and 8 to 28% with the APSIM-sunflower model with current agricultural practices in mid-century (2040-
2069). The models simulate more achene yield 20% by CROPGRO and 18% by APSIM-Sunflower with the adaptations
measured on current agricultural practices to mitigate the impact of climate change. For all GCMs, 11-20% achene yield
would be increased with these adaptation measures in mid-century. Therefore, the improved crop genetic (phenology) and
agronomic practices for sunflower as an adaptation strategy could mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Muhammad Awais, Muhammad Anwar-ul-haq, Syed Aftab Wajid, Muhammad Mubeen , Javaid Akhtar. (2020) ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR SUNFLOWER PRODUCTION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE FOR ARID ENVIRONMENT BY USING CROPGRO AND APSIM-SUNFLOWER MODELS, Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences, Volume 57, Issue 6.
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